Story :               James Goyder
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You could be forgiven for losing track of the events which unfolded in the aftermath of last month’s historic Thai election. In Thailand politics is seldom straightforward, and this was epitomised in the fallout from an election result that proved to be both complicated and controversial. For anyone that has been unable to keep up with events here is a brief glimpse through the eyes of the world’s media.

Global Reaction
The restoration of democracy to Thailand last month made headlines across the globe with deposed Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra dominating many of them. The BBC reported on Sunday December 23 that the People Power Party (PPP), ‘the party allied to Thailand’s ousted PM Thaksin Shinawatra’ had won the general election. BBC correspondent Jonathan Head described the vote as, ‘a dramatic repudiation of the coup’ and questioned how the military, who were responsible for that coup, would react.

CNN on the same day described the failure of the PPP to win a decisive majority as ‘a recipe for continuing political instability’ while reporting that the US State Department, which had criticised the coup, congratulated the Thai people, ‘on taking this crucial step toward a return to elected government.’ The Washington Post described it as, ‘a striking rebuke to the generals who forced the billionaire populist (Thaksin Shinawatra) from power in 2006.’

Initial Thoughts
Meanwhile, in Thailand, the Nation reported that the PPP was likely to form a coalition government by allying itself to some of the smaller political parties and that PPP leader Samak Sundaravej expected to be Prime Minister. However it did draw attention to the Democrat’s success in Bangkok, where they won 29 out of 36 seats, describing it as a ‘return to (the) glory days’.

The Bangkok Post reported the PPP as having won at least 230 of the 480 contested seats at Sunday’s polls, short of the 241 needed for a majority. It described these results as revealing, ‘a still bitterly polarised Thailand’. The same paper also commented that, ‘throughout the election campaign, the calmest, most thoughtful and most peaceful group in the country has been the voters’ and predicted that the Electoral Commission, responsible for investigating allegations of electoral misconduct, would still have a role to play in deciding the outcome of the election.

The Nation then reported on the favourable response to the election from overseas but Thaksin Shinawatra was in the news again. Don Pathan, writing in the Nation suggested Samak was merely a ‘bench-warmer’ for the former PM. Meanwhile the same paper reported that retaliation against the military, who were responsible for deposing the PPP in its previous incarnation as Thai Rak Thai, was unlikely.

The Bangkok Post also reported that the PPP was likely to form a coalition government, but that they would not announce details about the exact composition of such a government until the voting results had been confirmed by the EC. A Reuters report described the PPP’s refusal to name the relevant parties, as, ‘a common feature of post-election horsetrading in Thailand’.

Asian Perspective
On the same day in Hong Kong Thaksin Shinawatra elected to call a press conference to announce his intention to return to Thailand. The impending return of Thaksin dominated the headlines, both in Thailand and abroad, with all the major news agencies carrying the story. The Associated Press reported him as wanting to return by April at the latest, despite being adamant he would not return to politics. Al Jazeera highlighted some of the potential obstacles to his return, including the fact that he is ‘legally barred from taking office’ and has ‘been charged with corruption-related crimes’.

The next day’s Thai papers all carried this story with the Nation reporting that ‘political and business leaders had warned former premier Thaksin Shinawatra against interfering with the political and judicial systems after he announced his plan to return to Thailand.’

The Bangkok Post went as far as to describe Thaksin as being the PPP’s ‘de facto leader’ and voiced the fear that, ‘his latest remarks and actions appear to contradict his repeated promise that he had washed his hands of politics.’  The same editorial concluded that, ‘keeping a low profile would be to his own benefit and that of the PPP.’

On a more positive note the Nation also reported the election as having been given a clean bill of health by The Asian Network for Free Elections who felt that, ‘the results appeared to generally reflect the will of the people.’  However the same organisation did express concern with violations in the pre-election period and urged the EC, ‘to pursue cases of vote-buying vigorously but to do so equitably.’

Unravelling Story
Later in the week The Bangkok Post carried the story that three PPP candidates had been yellow-carded on suspicion of cheating at the polls with the EC expected to announce more candidate punishments. The Post explained the electoral disciplinary system as follows, ‘yellow-carded candidates can contest by-elections set for Jan 13. But red-carded candidates will be barred as will their parties from competing.’

Speculation was still rife as to the potential formation of a coalition, with the Democrats clinging to the faint hope that they might be able to form a coalition of their own. Both the Nation and the Bangkok Post believed that the allegiance of the Chart Thai party, which was likely to end up with 37 seats, held the key to the PPP’s ability to form a coalition government. While the Bangkok Post urged Chart Thai leader Banharn Silpa-archa to, ‘make up his mind’ he claimed he was awaiting the results of EC investigations to see which candidates were disqualified. The Nation highlighted Chart Thai’s pre-election commitment for an alliance with the Democrats as being a potential obstacle. Meanwhile a spokesperson for Thaksin felt obliged to issue a statement denying that he was behind the potential formation of the coalition.

Another development which caught the attention of the worldwide media came when, in the words of the following day’s Bangkok Post, ‘prosecutors said they will not hesitate to arrest ousted premier Thaksin Shinawatra as soon as he arrives in Thailand for his alleged involvement in a land corruption scandal on Ratchadapisek road.’ The BBC also reported Samphan Sarathana, of the attorney-general’s office as saying, about Thaksin’s potential return, that, ‘the police have to comply with arrest warrants which have already been issued by the courts.’

Some Distance To Go
In a big step towards the PPP forming a coalition both the Pueae Pandin, who hold 24 seats, and the Chart Thai party set out a list of conditions under which they would be prepared to join it in government. This led Democrat party leader, Abhisit Vejjajiva, to effectively concede the election to the PPP by announcing that his party was officially ready for opposition.

Meanwhile the first casualties of the EC’s electoral investigations came in the northeastern province of Buri Ram where 3 successful PPP candidates were disqualified for allegedly offering incentives to eligible voters. The Bangkok Post predicted that more yellow and red cards would follow as the EC concluded its investigations.

With the death of HRH the King’s sister grinding the political process to a temporary halt at the start of 2008 it was possible to take stock of the outcome of the election. The Nation believed that it came down to, ‘the rural and urban poor versus the urban middle classes and the elite’ with the former voting for the pro-Thaksin People Power Party (PPP), and the latter for the pro-aristocratic and junta-friendly Democrat Party. The PPP came out on top and now appear likely to form a coalition government.